The Orlando Magic open the regular season at home against the Miami Heat, Wednesday, Oct. 18.
After a disastrous 29-53 record one year ago, let's take a look ahead to what we should expect this year.
Welcome to the Orlando Sports Weekly Rundown, I'm David Baumann.
This is my 14th-consecutive year covering the Magic and after five straight losing seasons, I've finally got some (just a little!) newfound optimism, even though the Las Vegas oddsmakers do NOT.
We'll start with the new Magic executives, then get to the players... then to the season record predictions.
A wholly new front office - with the lone exception of holdover CEO Alex Martins - has been set in place to give this franchise a makeover.
I'll tell you right now... I like the new hires.
Former Magic great Tracy McGrady is a new special assistant to the CEO.
Jeff Weltman came from the Toronto Raptors to take over as President of Basketball Operations.
Weltman hired friend and ally John Hammond from the Milwaukee Bucks to take over as General Manager. Hammond replaces the extraordinarily ineffective Rob Hennigan, who posted a 132-278 record in his five seasons -- the worst five year stretch in Magic history.
Both Weltman and Hammond worked together in Milwaukee from 2008-13 and in Detroit in 2007.
I actually ran into Weltman and his family recently at Orlando International Airport and he was just a very friendly, normal guy.
Perhaps he was nice because I was wearing the correct hat.
The Orlando Magic 2017-18 Season Starts This Month
But honestly, Weltman is a very down-to-earth guy. It seems he truly enjoys talking basketball with fans. "It's a very loyal fanbase," Weltman told OrlandoMagic.com. "In a lot of ways they know the lay of the land a lot better than I do... Everywhere I go people seem energized. That excites us."
This new front office's first NBA draft choice was 6'10" Jonathan Isaac from nearby Florida State University.
Isaac was the 6th overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft -- and with draft choices that high, you hope they have the potential to shift the fortune of the franchise.
Guys like Damian Lillard, Antoine Walker, Adrian Dantley... even Larry Bird... were all chosen 6th overall in past drafts.
Magic head coach Frank Vogel says Isaac is "NBA ready" defensively, but offensively, there are question marks.
And it's the same main question mark that the entire Magic roster faces:
"Can he shoot? Can any of these guys shoot?"
Isaac was just 41.1% from the floor in his first five NBA preseason games and many of those points came in the paint.
He was just 3-12 from long range (25%).
So he appears to be a work in progress.
Not surprising, considering Isaac just turned 20-years-old. The team is high on his "upside."
The new front office also chose 6'7" SG Wesley Iwundu out of Kansas State University with the 33th overall pick in the draft.
[The Magic front office will be fairly criticized if they missed out on potential stars like Dallas PG Dennis Smith, Jr. (9th overall), and Lakers PF Kyle Kuzma (27th overall)]
As for the other newcomers to this year's Magic team...
Newcomer #1: The high-flying, high-energy, Jonathon Simmons signed a three-year, $20M contract. He's probably had the best preseason of any player on the team. He scored 20 points and dished out 10 assists against his former team, the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday night.
Newcomer #2: 10-year NBA vet Marresse Speights, AKA "Mo Buckets," is one guy who isn't afraid to shoot the rock. He's an "instant offense" sort of player. He helped the Golden State Warriors win an NBA title a couple years ago. He's a career 34.9% three-point shooter. Not bad for a guy who stands 6'10." But don't expect much defense from Speights... He's not the fleetest of foot.
Newcomer #3: 11-year NBA vet Arron Afflalo is back in a Magic jersey for a second time. Afflalo's statistics have fallen quite a bit from his prime. He averaged 18.2 PPG for the offensively challenged Orlando Magic back in 2013-14, but scored just 8.4 PPG for the Sacramento Kings last year. I expect Afflalo to be like a player-coach out there for the Magic this season. Great guy. Very well respected. But let's face it... he's turning 32 and is far past his prime.
Newcomer #4: Shelvin Mack, a seventh-year vet from the Utah Jazz. He's a career 6.3 PPG, 2.9 APG role player.
Now for the returning players...
Unfortunately, for the core of this roster, they've failed to prove they're capable of winning consistently.
Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton were drafted together in 2014, and while each has shown overall improvement, neither has truly improved upon their biggest struggle: shooting.
Gordon is a career 46% shooting from the floor, 28.9% from three point range.
Payton is nearly a mirror image of Gordon: 44.6% from the floor, 28.9% from threes.
Not good.
Payton apparently devoted this offseason to improve himself defensively... So I'm doubting any major offensive improvement from him. But he his a rangy point guard who can gobble up triple-doubles in a way Rajon Rondo-like fashion.
Former GM Rob Hennigan insisted on experimenting with Aaron Gordon as a small forward last season. That proved unsuccessful. Gordon should finally settle in back at his natural power forward position this year. Head coach Frank Vogel might even play Gordon at the center position at times this year to give the lineup a smaller, more athletic look. Gordon should post more impressive stat lines this year. A key for him will be consistency.
Nikola Vucevic is the longest-tenured player on the Magic roster having played five full seasons in Orlando.
He's a good rebounder, below average defender and a decent scorer. But his statistics have taken a tumble since 2014-15. In fact, his scoring averages have fallen from 19.3 PPG to 18.2 PPG to just 14.6 PPG this past season with just 46.8 FG%. That's a poor percentage for the center position. It's tough to get a gauge on Vucevic's place or purpose on this team. He's a constant focus of trade rumors.
Evan Fournier is the Magic's highest paid player. He's in the 2nd year of a five-year, $85M deal. He turns 25-years-old this season and is entering his prime. His statistics have improved every year.
Fournier led the Magic in scoring this past year, however, I don't believe he's a go-to player. Fournier should be a second, third, or even fourth option on a superb team. He's just simply not in the same conversation as the LeBrons, Steph Currys, Kevin Durants, James Hardens and Russ Westbrooks of this world. He's just not.
He's a good complimentary player.
As for some other quick mentions about players on this roster...
Terrence Ross is a steady 10-point, 3 rebound a game guy.
Bismack Biyombo has one of the NBA's most laughable contracts (four-years, $72M) that doesn't come close to matching his low level of production.
Mario Hezonja could go down as one of the worst 5th overall NBA Draft picks of all time unless he gets his act together in his third year.
He was arguably the worst player in the NBA last year, posting a league-worst "real plus-minus ratio" out of 468 players.
What's additionally troubling is see Magic veteran backup point guard D.J. Augustin on that dubious list... Only seven spots away from Hezonja!
Bottom line... The Magic still do not have a star.
And I don't see anyone on this roster becoming one.
You can't tell me that Fournier is it.
Neither is Simmons, Payton, Vuc, Isaac, or anyone else on this roster.
The player with the most star potential is Aaron Gordon...
He's extremely athletic. Can guard almost any position.
But I don't think he'll ever possess the create-your-own-shot ability as true NBA stars.
And with the Superstar-Loaded-Superteam-Era of the NBA, you're either a "Have" or "Have Not."
The Warriors, Cavs, Thunder and Rockets are the Haves.
And the Warriors are leaps and bounds above those other three teams.
Almost everyone else - with a couple exceptions - are the Have Nots.
Without a star, the Magic won't come close to contending for a league title this year.
Both Vegas Insider and Bovada rank the Magic dead last (tied with the Chicago Bulls) in terms of odds of winning it all.
Now, I'll never bet against Vegas, but I do think the dead-last ranking might be a little overboard.
I think the Magic are probably better than the Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Suns, Hawks and maybe the Pacers and the Kings.
And if all goes well this year, I could even see the Magic squeaking into the playoffs.
I've often been right about my preseason predictions (in fact, I was within five games of being correct in four of the last five years, with last season being the lone exception. I was far too optimistic about the Magic's chances last year. What the heck was I smoking when I predicted 47 wins?!?).
I'm going to predict a 37-45 record for the Magic this year... which, believe it or not, would be their most regular season wins since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.
Some Magic fans have been writing to me with their own predictions:
43-39 AG makes the All-Star team, Simmons wins most improved player
— Brian Erbe (@erbe_brian) October 13, 2017
That's a bold one!
And some skepticism:
@erbe_brian @OrlandoMagic we'll be hearing the "This is AG's year" for however long he's here.
— Walters (@orlandoemw) October 13, 2017
Then there's this season prediction from radio broadcaster Carson Ingle, who keeps his finger on the pulse of Orlando sports:
34 wins, first team out of the playoffs in the East
— Carson Ingle (@caingle) October 13, 2017
Hopefully, this team exceeds expectations... and FINALLY, gives Magic fans something to be excited about.
David Baumann is a Sports Columnist for 407area.com and can be heard on EK Sports Tuesdays from 7-9pm on 96.9 The Game FM/740 The Game AM.
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